Sunriver Real Estate Update for Q4 2008
Because the media has been talking so much about falling home values, a quick caveat regarding statistical medians is in order because they can often lead to very misleading data. The median reflects not only rises and falls in actual property values of homes sold. It also comprises the mix of sales. If more inexpensive homes sell than pricier ones, the median will decline much faster. That clouds the issue, masking the true appreciation or depreciation of all homes. So, beware of taking overall figures strictly at face value, because in reality the national or even regional median declines do not give you a good indication of the value of your home. In a national market where many of the sales are foreclosures and short sales, you need to understand how much that is affecting the statistical data to the downside. Also remember that Sunriver is a fairly small community and statistics can vary greatly from quarter to quarter, especially during these periods of low volume of sales.
To determine the true market price of a given home, it’s necessary to conduct a far more narrow Comparative Market Analysis of similar homes in the area to determine the value of any given home. That’s one of the reasons why you need an experienced and knowledgeable real estate professional.
In any case, there is little doubt that actual home prices declined in 2008. Those declining prices have contributed to a bit of upswing in buyers that are now returning to market to pick up the bargains. When the economy does start to improve, Sunriver will be out in front of national trends and recover quickly.
Based on the sales figures for the Sunriver real estate market in 2008, it appears we have bottomed in the second half of this year. Prices will likely flounder further over the winter, but as the unprecedented massive Fed economic rescue program gains traction, I predict that we’ll see improvement in sales volume as we move into the spring and summer months. Let's be clear about this, I am an optimist, a "glass half full kind" of guy and I think something good is about to happen all the time. I do believe that all this cheap money will bring back the buyers.
Fourth Quarter Sales Data
Q4 2008 Sales Data
Total transactions: 21
Total $ volume of transactions: $ 8,765,000
Bare Land: 0
Shared ownership: 3
Condos: 2
Homes: 16 Over $1 million: 3
Average percentage of list price: 90.49%
Q4 2007 Sales Data
Total transactions: 42
Total $ volume of transactions: $ 23,320,164
Bare Land: 3
Shared ownership: 4
Condos: 4
Homes: 31 Over $ 1 million: 5
Average percentage of list price: 96.3%
Q3 2008 Sales Data
Total transactions: 25
Total $ volume of transactions: $ 12,818,500
Bare Land: 1
Shared ownership: 3
Condos: 4
Homes: 17 Over $1 million: 2
Average percentage of list price: 94.3%
It is quite clear that Q4 2008 was a very slow quarter. When compared to the previous year the total volume was down by 2/3’s and the % of listing price was off an additional 5%.
The good news is that the number of homes on the market has dropped significantly and is now down to 135 homes and as of today (1/6/08) there are 8 pending sales in the pipeline. That is promising when you see we only closed 21 Sunriver deals in Q4.
John Watkins
Bennington Properties
541-390-3600
Because the media has been talking so much about falling home values, a quick caveat regarding statistical medians is in order because they can often lead to very misleading data. The median reflects not only rises and falls in actual property values of homes sold. It also comprises the mix of sales. If more inexpensive homes sell than pricier ones, the median will decline much faster. That clouds the issue, masking the true appreciation or depreciation of all homes. So, beware of taking overall figures strictly at face value, because in reality the national or even regional median declines do not give you a good indication of the value of your home. In a national market where many of the sales are foreclosures and short sales, you need to understand how much that is affecting the statistical data to the downside. Also remember that Sunriver is a fairly small community and statistics can vary greatly from quarter to quarter, especially during these periods of low volume of sales.
To determine the true market price of a given home, it’s necessary to conduct a far more narrow Comparative Market Analysis of similar homes in the area to determine the value of any given home. That’s one of the reasons why you need an experienced and knowledgeable real estate professional.
In any case, there is little doubt that actual home prices declined in 2008. Those declining prices have contributed to a bit of upswing in buyers that are now returning to market to pick up the bargains. When the economy does start to improve, Sunriver will be out in front of national trends and recover quickly.
Based on the sales figures for the Sunriver real estate market in 2008, it appears we have bottomed in the second half of this year. Prices will likely flounder further over the winter, but as the unprecedented massive Fed economic rescue program gains traction, I predict that we’ll see improvement in sales volume as we move into the spring and summer months. Let's be clear about this, I am an optimist, a "glass half full kind" of guy and I think something good is about to happen all the time. I do believe that all this cheap money will bring back the buyers.
Fourth Quarter Sales Data
Q4 2008 Sales Data
Total transactions: 21
Total $ volume of transactions: $ 8,765,000
Bare Land: 0
Shared ownership: 3
Condos: 2
Homes: 16 Over $1 million: 3
Average percentage of list price: 90.49%
Q4 2007 Sales Data
Total transactions: 42
Total $ volume of transactions: $ 23,320,164
Bare Land: 3
Shared ownership: 4
Condos: 4
Homes: 31 Over $ 1 million: 5
Average percentage of list price: 96.3%
Q3 2008 Sales Data
Total transactions: 25
Total $ volume of transactions: $ 12,818,500
Bare Land: 1
Shared ownership: 3
Condos: 4
Homes: 17 Over $1 million: 2
Average percentage of list price: 94.3%
It is quite clear that Q4 2008 was a very slow quarter. When compared to the previous year the total volume was down by 2/3’s and the % of listing price was off an additional 5%.
The good news is that the number of homes on the market has dropped significantly and is now down to 135 homes and as of today (1/6/08) there are 8 pending sales in the pipeline. That is promising when you see we only closed 21 Sunriver deals in Q4.
John Watkins
Bennington Properties
541-390-3600
